Is Iran resigned to stronger Israel-Saudi Arabia ties?

Iran’s regime appears to be concerned about Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia and the potential that those ties could increase under the premiership of Benjamin Netanyahu. This follows two months of reports about the possibility of Israel expanding its circle of peace partners beyond the current Abraham Accords states.

Israel inaugurated an embassy for Chad this week amid Chad President Mahamat Déby’s visit, an event that Hamas slammed. Iran and the groups it supports, like Hamas, are angry over Israel’s success on the diplomatic front.

While Iranian media eschewed reports on the Israel-Chad and Israel-Sudan ties, it highlighted Israel-Saudi ties. A report at Fars News – more than 2,000 words long – highlighted reports in Western media about the “Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime seeking to normalize relations with each other,” and that “this issue is important for the Islamic world.”

When the Abraham Accords were signed in September 2020, normalizing ties with the UAE and Bahrain, it was a diplomatic process that had the full support of Saudi Arabia. Riyadh also appears to view the regional integration of the accords in a positive light, extending to the Negev Forum and Israel’s growing ties with US CENTCOM, as well as warming ties with Egypt and Morocco.

The Israel-Saudi relationship has been highlighted elsewhere in the past few months as well. Middle East Eye reported in mid-January, “Israel wants to bring Saudis into [the] ‘circle of peace,’ says Netanyahu.”

Axios reported that Netanyahu spoke to US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan about Saudi Arabia then as well. There were also other reports in mid- and late-December, after Netanyahu gave an interview to Al-Arabiya. On Wednesday, Middle East Monitor claimed that “Israel[’s] priority is to normalize ties with Arabs before peace with Palestine: Netanyahu.”

For Fars, tied to the IRGC, Israel-Saudi ties are important; Iran wants to prevent these ties emerging, or, alternatively, leverage rumors about them, to create controversy for Riyadh.

The Iranian report digs deep, explaining the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, which defined French and British spheres of control in the event of a collapse of the Ottoman Empire, partitioning the Middle East.

This is, in essence, the Iranian far-right worldview, where the creation of Israel is presented as a foreign conspiracy, ignoring the attachment of Jews to their historic and ancestral homeland. Iran’s regime knows that there was always a presence of Jews in the Middle East, since the regime itself sometimes celebrates its own diversity – which includes a Jewish community – but “Zionism” receives a different narrative.

It then lists a number of examples of companies and individuals conducting business between the two countries, including allegations of an engineering company that invested in Saudi Arabia, joint renewable energy and water scarcity projects and a banking firm.

It adds that some Saudis have said “we love Israel’s innovation” and that “Gulf countries have established secret security relations with Israel. These hidden relations have been formed from common concerns, especially Iran, and now the economic relations are being revealed.”

The report notes that while the US backed the Abraham Accords, it was not popular among Arabs across the Gulf.

It is clear from the report how much Iran relies on others for information, apparently due to fears of its media being seen as promoting Israel-Saudi ties; it even quotes a report from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).

The Iranian report says that Saudi officials have concerns about their position in the Islamic world, noting other hurdles about American commitments and Saudi Arabia’s desire for new defense contracts in the US and a “nuclear agreement” between Riyadh and Washington.

“If these 3 conditions are met, Saudi Arabia is ready to shake hands with Israel next month,” the report says.

The article also mentions a Brookings report from 2022: “According to Brookings, the secret cooperation between the Saudis and the Israelis dates back to the early 1960s, when both supported the Yemeni royalists against the Egyptian republican government.”

It further notes that Saudi Arabia has permitted direct flights from Israel to the Gulf over its territory. The survey of reports then goes on to look at how Iran’s threats brought Israel and Saudi Arabia closer and how economic negotiations are taking place.

Iran’s report concludes by saying Israel has spent 75 years of “crimes, killing, occupation and encroachment of the Zionists on Palestine and illegal presence in the country.” Therefore, the author wonders how normalization will occur, considering that Saudi Arabia has supported the two-state solution.

The conclusion, from the point of view of the Iranian regime, is that this is “a plan that England and America could not implement many years ago, and today the Saudis are looking for it.”

In essence, it accuses Riyadh of being the latest part of the historical support Israel has had from the UK and the US. The overall message of a report like this one is that Iran’s regime feels it has a number of ways to prevent normalization now.